2011-4-28 08:59
bunnylai
曾淵滄專欄 2011 04 28
[size=3][color=#0000ff][b]高地價未必利發展商[/b][/color][/size]
[size=3][color=#0000ff][/color][/size]
昨日高山道地皮拍賣，是本財政年度第一次政府土地拍賣，這幅土地有多種限制，其中最重要的是「發水」面積只限 10%，因此拍賣前業界並不看好，但最後以 15.25億元成交，算起來呎價接近 1萬元，是市場預測的上限。
市場在賣地前的預測成交價介乎 10.5億至 15.35億元， 15.35億元的預測價是中原地產旗下的測量行所作，目前，中原依然是市場的大好友，老闆施永青就多次公開唱好樓價。
為甚麼拍賣前多數行內人不看好﹖那只不過是「發水」的遊戲規則改變罷了，以前「發水」面積達 30%，目前只有 10%，於是以前所謂拍賣呎價為 1萬元者，實際上僅 7692元。現在，高山道地皮經過「發水」後的呎價約為 9061元，或者說，如果依然允許「發水」 30%，昨日賣地價應該達 18億元，即呎價 11779元。
成本高風險增
市區土地的確越來越貴，目前有多少地產商手上有大量已經補了地價可供開發的市區土地？因此，高地價已經使到地產商也陷入危機，因為若不以高價買地、高價補地價，手上土地開發完了，還能當地產發展商嗎？但高價買地、高價補地價，風險也相應提高。
以前，每逢賣地創出高價，人人都說對地產商有利，因為他們手上的土地也升值了。這種說法，是先假設地產商手上有大量已補地價或之前以較低價買入的土地。
不錯，一些老牌地產商如長江實業（ 001）、新鴻基地產（ 016）、恒基地產（ 012）都有大量的土地儲備，但未必已經補了地價，今日在政府官員惟恐被質疑「官商勾結」的壓力下，商討補地價態度往往很強硬，地產商佔不到便宜，通過補地價而開發的成本，與在拍賣會上買地的成本不會相差太遠。
來源 :HK Portal
2011-5-17 22:52
ereruseyer
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