投資心理戰：《內貿規劃》推升內需股[轉載]

兩會完結了差不多一個月，「十二五」規劃及保障房的受惠板塊已「炒無可炒」，早前熱炒板塊如建材、水泥、農業股等有見頂回落的迹象，到了這個時候，下一個重點的題目會是甚麼呢？筆者認為會是商務部快將推出的《國內貿易發展規劃》，今次的主角是內需股。

消費零售總額激增可期《內貿規劃》預期將在本月底推出，是「十二五」規劃之中，三個國家級專項規劃之一。在「十一五」及以前的日子，內地的政策一直是「重外貿、輕內貿」，從沒有編制過類似這樣《內貿規劃》的文件，因此今次應該是歷史首創，把內需放到了一個前所未有的重要位置。
《內貿規劃》是未來5年內需政策的主要藍圖，商務部副部長姜增偉早前曾表示，《內貿規劃》的思路主要有5個重點，包括擴大消費、加大流通企業的建設、轉變營銷方式、改善市場秩序環境以及經營主體如何壯大並適合市場需求，按照現代組織的管理及流通方式做大做強。預期到二○一五年，社會消費品零售總額將可以較去年翻一番，增至逾30萬億元人民幣。
從經濟學的角度來說，一個國家在發展的初期，主要消費會放在必需品之上，但當人均GDP到達了一定的程度，例如是超過3,000至5,000美元，非必需品的比例就會顯著上升，最後是奢侈品的比重增加。去年中國人均GDP為29,748元人民幣（約4,375美元），已步入一個新的發展階段，未來富裕家庭的比例將上升，名牌產品將成為消費的重要戰場。
規劃綱要揭示受惠板塊要達到每年30萬億元人民幣的社會消費品零售總額，並不是一件容易的事，必須有政策上的支持。筆者估計《內貿規劃》的重點，會放在非必需品及奢侈品之上，受惠的板塊可參考兩會後發表的《十二五規劃綱要》當中第15章及16章：
優化城市綜合超市、購物中心、批發市場等商業網點結構和布局，支援便利店、中小超市、社區菜店等社區商業發展；
鼓勵和支持連鎖經營、物流配送、電子商務等現代流通方式向農村延伸，完善農村服務網點；
支援大型超市與農村合作組織對接；
全面發展內地旅遊，積極發展入境旅遊，有序發展出境旅遊；
將體育變成商品化，加強體育事業，發展體育用品；外國很多體育事業都可賺上大錢，例如美國NBA籃球、歐洲足球、高爾夫球、網球等；
拓展金融服務業，發展網上交易等新型服務業態，更好地發揮信用融資、租賃、擔保、網商銀行等各類金融服務。
中信証券國際董事（零售證券業務發展）林一鳴
來源 : 東方日報

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